Proof Ginge Can Listen to Reason

I received an email last week from a reader named Christian who offered some well thought out and well researched responses to my infamous black cloud opinions about American soccer from the questionnaire on Match Fit USA and my elaboration here on the blog. Christian is an American living in England, so he is able to provide some perspective that I can’t replicate, as he frequents Huddersfield Town matches in England and is an LA Galaxy season ticket holder.

Christian has agreed to allow me to post his responses, because I think they offer wonderful counterpoints, and quite honestly pick my views apart. Since I’m not afraid of posting critiques and criticism of my opinions, I encourage everyone to take a couple minutes and read what Christian had to say.

How many Americans on Champions League Teams in 2019. One?

There are 4 Americans playing on 3 Champions League clubs already. (Edu and Beasley at Rangers; Onyewu at Standard Liege, and Marcus Tracy at Aalborg). Did you mean Group Stage Champions League clubs, usually from the “Big” European Leagues?

Granted, we’re also talking 1st team choices but think about this: look at the number of Americans currently on the periphery, or on (Big) clubs that are on the Champions League cusp: Altidore at Villareal, Bryan Arguez at Hertha Berlin, Gregory Garza at Sporting Lisbon, Friedel, Guzan, and Eric Lichaj at Aston Villa, Howard at Everton, Freddy Adu (going back to) Benfica, not to mention the ones who got away: Rossi (also at Villareal), and Neven Subotic at Borussia Dortmund.

Admittedly some of these are prospects that barely make the bench at this point, and some of them are players on clubs that aren’t (yet) automatic Champions League participants. But man alive! To think that in ten years this amount of players (14) won’t solidify, improve, increase, (choose the USMNT)… but rather digress to the point that in a decade there will be 75% less Americans on CL clubs then there are today? Do you know how many Americans were even playing in Europe, in any league, ten years AGO? I remember dancing a jig when a couple USMNT players went to Second Division clubs in Europe after the 98 World Cup. Now, young Americans are going to those 2nd Divisions out of high school or college with such regularity we don’t even really pay attention! (Davies, Grella, Jeffrey, Robles, Westberg, Ferrari, Dalby and Jacobsen [both back in MLS] to name just a few recent ones).

Again: I have a much more optimistic outlook of how many Americans will be first choice members of Champions League clubs. I’d say, conservatively, 15. Yes, seriously. Between 2 and 4 on a “Super Club” like Bayern Munich, Arsenal, or Manchester City (the Chelsea of the next decade). And at least a dozen scattered throughout Europe on the smaller Champions League clubs like Glasgow Rangers, Celtic, Standard Liege, Marseille, Benfica, Twente or PSV Eindhoven.

In 2019 MLS will be equal in quality to… English League One?

You asked in your ‘Black Cloud’ response, ‘How many League One matches have people seen (those that disagree with you)?’ I feel I’m in a pretty good position to debate this with you. I’m an American that lives in England. My job has me back and forth between Los Angeles and London. My wife is from Huddersfield, which any student of League One can tell you is the home of the Terriers of Huddersfield Town, one of the better clubs in the English 3rd Division, and one of the biggest. Her father is an executive season ticket holder with box seats at the Galpharm Stadium. My best friend in LA and I are season ticket holders for the Galaxy, which any student of MLS will tell you is one of the crappier teams in America.

In the last 5 years, I’ve probably been to over 30 Huddersfield Town matches in person, including their famous promotion to League One at Millennium Stadium in Cardiff 2004, and their two valiant defeats to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in the 2005 & 2006 FA Cup. Not many matches on TV though, because even here in England televised League One matches are hard to come by; which makes me really question how many League One matches you’re able to observe from America!

Town is a good League One team, just 8 points off the playoffs for promotion to the Championship this season. The Galaxy have been in disarray for a few seasons now, not making the playoffs for 3 years. Terrible!

I have no doubt whatsoever that the Galaxy would beat Huddersfield Town. Hands down. My wife, bless her, agrees; my father-in-law as well (both of whom have seen matches in USA).

And teams like Chivas USA, Chicago Fire, Seattle, and DC United would positively dismantle and crush Town, and look on the pitch a class apart. Why? Because they are a class apart. I’m not looking at MLS clubs through rose tinted glasses, though: Championship clubs are as far ahead of League One clubs as they are behind Premier League teams.

I’ve been watching League One matches, in person, for five years now; I’ve been watching MLS and Superliga matches, in person, for three years now. I started playing soccer in 1980; led my state in scoring as a senior in 1992. I was recruited to play in college but went instead on an American football scholarship to a Division I-AA school. I went on exchange for a year to the University of Wolverhampton in 1995. I played for the University’s Dudley campus soccer team and endured endless ribbing about the shit state of American soccer, the American soccer player, and the imminent failure of our new league: the cheesily titled Major League Soccer.

I guess what I’m trying to say, is that my optimism isn’t borne out of naiveté. I have played the game and watched the game for some time at different levels, in different countries. I have played college athletics in America and can discern the difference between divisions of talent, speed, skill, quality.

Let’s take Seattle for instance. This is a club with ‘has-been’ players like Ljungberg, Keller, and Marshall who have played for their national teams, in World Cups, and in the Champions League, with and for clubs like Tottenham Hotspur, and Arsenal. It has up and comers like Freddy Montero who is already capped by Colombia and Zakuani who played for Arsenal’s prestigious Youth team for 5 years.

Huddersfield Town? Well, their most accomplished player is 35 year old Andy Booth. A Town legend that’s played almost 400 matches for the club, Booth’s time at the highest level consists of 5 seasons at Sheffield Wednesday. Two years ago, at 33, he was Town’s Player of the Year. I would certainly rate any MLS squad’s MVP higher than Booth. (Booth wouldn’t even be able to crack an MLS starting XI). The rest of the squad is made up of other old stalwarts that never made it to the big time, and young-ish ones that never will.

From what I’ve seen, live in person, the technical ability (trapping, first touch, dribbling, finishing, etc) of the average MLS player is at a par with what you’ll see in the top half of League One, the bottom half of the Championship. But when you factor in the fact that American players are generally taller, faster, stronger, fitter with that equal technical ability… well, you have a higher quality League as a whole (than League One).

Hell, our has-beens are higher quality has-beens than ANY you’ll find in League One. Andy Booth is a has-been-that-never-was; Claudio Lopez is a has been that’s scored 10 goals for and represented Argentina in two World Cups, not to mention playing over 100 matches in the Serie A and being a Champions League Runner-Up. That’s good quality has-been. Yes: there are tons of Andy Booths in MLS; but there are NO Claudio Lopezes in League One.

Our up and comers? In the 3 World Cups during the life of MLS there’ve been 45 (aggregate) players representing 8 different countries that have played in the World Cup. I can tell you the number of League One players to represent their country in a World Cup starts with a zero. Granted there are plenty of U-21 National teamers in League One, but they tend to never advance to the next level. You and I both know that an English player in his early to mid 20s is playing in League One because he did not and never will develop into an EPL caliber player, or even a Championship player. League One is full of Andy Booths and these “young” players.

In the 13 year life of MLS players have transferred to and played immediately for clubs like Manchester United, PSV Eindhoven, Rangers, and Villareal. You know, Champions League clubs. A few years back it was like the Second Coming in Huddersfield when Jon Stead transferred to relegation threatened Blackburn in the big time (where he would sit the bench). League One players do not transfer directly to big clubs. Ever. The big leagues don’t look for talent in League One. Why? Or rather, if they don’t look in League One, why would they ever look in MLS? Just yesterday in the Evening Times (Scotland), former Chelsea stalwart Joe McLaughlin agreed with me saying: “The top college sides in American would beat most First Division clubs over here and some clubs in the lower reaches of the Scottish Premier League.” Dude, he’s talking about college teams!

Finally, from a marketing and social standpoint: League One, with clubs that are over a century old, averaged just over 7,000 fans per game (and that flatters about 15 teams). Seven. Thousand. A few weeks ago we met my father in law for an away match v Walsall. It was an exciting 5 goal match between two top of the table teams. Booth had a brace. There were less than 4,000 other people watching. The quality of play was…

Major League Soccer is ten years behind League One? Again, I have to ask: answering honestly, how many League One matches do you watch, or have you ever watched in person?

In 2019, MLS’ record outgoing transfer fee will still be Altidore’s $10 million

Jozy was 18 when his record-breaking transfer was made. To think that today, of all the millions of kids between 8 and 15 that are playing soccer in America, not one of them will develop into a player of similar caliber is pretty tunnel visioned. Here’s why I think that:

Today’s kids are more globalized than any generation in history. More and more kids are going to continue playing and developing as soccer players as kids today can watch and dream of playing in England, Spain, Italy etc than ever in the past. The internet, EPL on FSC, Champions League on ESPN: these things will keep more Americans playing soccer rather than defecting to the “real” sports of baseball, basketball, American football. I’d say in ten years, the American talent pool will be twice the size it was ten years ago.

Also, consider that America is still the melting pot of the world and what these players all have in common is the fact they were not born, but rather moved to America: Freddy Adu, Charles Renken, Joseph Gyau, Neven Subotic, Abdus Ibrahim, Gale Agbossoumonde, etc etc etc. If there is one certainty, it’s that today in some foreign country, there’s a soccer prodigy who’ll be moving to America. (It’s then USSF or MLS’ job to find them; though I admit that’s no certainty!)

$10 million sounds an awful lot, but in European terms, it’s only £6 million. In ten years, you don’t think it’s probable some unknown quality will warrant £6 million? I don’t think that’s pessimistic, I think it’s unrealistic. Landon Donovan would warrant more than that today! I think a player like Charles Renken could double that in five or six years. Especially when one considers the simple economics of inflation: it’s how Stan Collymore warrants £8.5 million in 1995 and 11 years later Shevchenko is “worth” £30.8 million! Twenty some years ago, when Mark Hughes transferred to Barcelona from Manchester United, it was for a record fee of £2.3 million! Or, less than Maurice Edu’s transfer fee.

You must think I’m overly optimistic, but I’ll make a gentleman’s bet with you that Jozy’s transfer fee will be broken within 5 years.

In 2019, there will be zero American managers in Top 3 English flights.

Sure. But will that really say anything about the state of American managers? It’s as rhetorical as saying How many Argentinean managers will be in the French Ligue One? There are many, many other factors involved as to where and when managers go anywhere. I would think you were considering these if it weren’t for your statement that “there are no up and coming American managers. Period.” Well, I would think that if Bob Bradley or Sigi Schmid were to lead the USMNT to a quarterfinal or (gasp) shock semifinal appearance in 2010 or 2014, that some Third Division English club would be thrilled to have them. I know Huddersfield Town would. You may not be a fan of Bob Bradley, but I guarantee you mid table Yeovill Town in League One (average gate 4,400) or mid table Blackpool in the Championship (average gate less than 8,000) would consider a World and Confederation Cup veteran and Gold Cup winning national team manager.

You’d like the name of an American manager not called Arena of Bradley? I’ll give you three and they’re not even managers yet: Claudio Reyna, Greg Berhalter, and Michael Bradley. Too young the last one? Probably he’ll be playing on a Champions League club still in ten years but you get the idea. Well respected players that have an itch to manage are fast tracked, as Roy Keane, Gareth Southgate, and Alan Shearer can attest. In ten years if Sunderland have fallen to League One, a legend like Reyna would be well received in spite of the fact he’s American; he brought it on the pitch. Five years prior to Southgate’s tenure at Middlesbrough, I’m sure most people would have answered Zero to the question: How many Managers from Watford will manage a Premier League Club within ten years?

Of course these guessing games are meaningless fun, but how many English managers will manage a Champions League Club in ten years? Currently there are none!